Nine Findings

What six decades of national emissions, energy and economic data support, one chart each. Every chart is a live query, re-run each time the site is built; follow a finding's link for the full argument, the data behind it and the decision it feeds.

1. Rich countries peaked decades ago. China and India have not.

The UK peaked in 1971, Germany in 1979, the US in 2005 and Japan in 2013; each now emits well below its record. China and India are still at theirs, and the large emitters that have not peaked yet add up to about half of world emissions. Peak emissions →

2. Grids got cleaner, and it was mostly coal

Spain, Poland and the UK each took more than 300 g out of every kWh, by closing coal plants. Vietnam and Indonesia went the other way, building coal while their demand doubled. Electricity →

3. Economies can grow while emissions fall

Every blue point grew its inflation-adjusted economy while cutting emissions, the US and the UK among them. Decoupling →

4. The cuts were real, not moved abroad

If rich countries had only moved their factories abroad, the emissions of what they buy would have fallen much less than the emissions of what they burn. For the UK, Germany, the US and Japan the two cuts are about the same size. Offshoring →

5. Emissions follow income, not population

Low-income countries are 9% of the world's people and under 1% of its emissions. Upper-middle-income countries, mostly China, are 38% of the people and half the emissions. Income →

6. Who caused it is not who is causing it

The US has put out about a quarter of all the CO₂ ever emitted, and emits an eighth of today's. China is the mirror image. Both rankings are correct; they answer different questions. Stock and flow →

7. Cleaner per dollar is not fewer tonnes

Every line falls: all six economies emit less per dollar than in 2005. China's and India's tonnage still rose, because their economies grew faster than their intensity fell. Intensity →

8. The gap between grids is not closing

The same 80 countries in every year, so the sample cannot move the lines.

The typical grid is cleaner, but the lines fall in parallel, so a site on a dirty grid carries much the same penalty as it did in 2000. Grid gap →

9. The rich world's cut was coal; what is left is oil and gas

Since 2005 coal has fallen by about as much as the whole net cut, and gas has grown. What remains is mostly oil and gas, in vehicles, boilers and furnaces, which are slower to replace than power stations. Fuels →

For a year-by-year view of the same data, use the Country Explorer.